/massu-estimate

A read-only effort estimation command that analyzes a task description or plan file and produces a complexity-scored estimate. It uses codebase impact analysis (how many files and domains would be touched), historical data from past sessions, and configurable complexity weights to generate a calibrated estimate in hours or story points.

What It Does

The estimate command runs four analysis steps:

1. Task parsing -- Reads the task description or plan file and extracts the deliverables, affected files, and scope
2. Impact analysis -- Uses the CodeGraph database to identify all files, domains, and tRPC procedures that would be affected (similar to massu_impact)
3. Complexity scoring -- Scores the task across four dimensions: scope (number of files), novelty (new patterns vs. existing), risk (security/migration/type changes), and test coverage needed
4. Historical comparison -- Searches the memory database for similar past tasks and compares actual vs. estimated completion time

The result is a structured estimate with confidence intervals. It does not modify any files.

Usage

Estimate from a task description:

/massu-estimate "Add pagination to the orders list endpoint"

Estimate from a plan file:

/massu-estimate docs/plans/2026-02-16-orders-pagination.md

Output in story points instead of hours:

/massu-estimate "Add pagination" --story-points

Output

## Effort Estimate

Task: Add pagination to the orders list endpoint

### Impact Analysis
- Files directly affected: 4
  - src/server/routers/orders.ts
  - src/components/orders/OrderList.tsx
  - src/hooks/useOrders.ts
  - src/types/orders.ts
- Domains touched: 1 (orders)
- tRPC procedures modified: 1 (orders.listOrders)
- Test files needed: 2

### Complexity Breakdown
| Dimension | Score | Reason |
|-----------|-------|--------|
| Scope | 2/5 | 4 files, 1 domain |
| Novelty | 1/5 | Pagination is an established pattern in this codebase |
| Risk | 1/5 | No migrations, no auth changes |
| Test coverage | 2/5 | 2 test files needed |
| **Total** | **6/20** | Low complexity |

### Estimate
- **Most likely**: 2-3 hours
- **Optimistic**: 1.5 hours
- **Pessimistic**: 4 hours
- **Confidence**: High (similar past tasks: 3 matches)

### Historical Comparison
- "Add pagination to users list" (2026-01-28): 2.5 hours actual
- "Add pagination to products list" (2026-02-03): 3 hours actual
- Average actual: 2.75 hours

Tips

• Estimates improve over time as Massu AI accumulates more historical session data
• Use plan files rather than descriptions for more accurate impact analysis -- plan files have explicit file paths
• The --story-points flag maps to a Fibonacci scale by default (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13)
• High-risk tasks (migrations, auth changes, security) automatically receive a pessimistic multiplier
• Share estimates with your team before starting work to surface scope disagreements early
• Run /massu-estimate on your plan after /massu-plan for a full picture: plan quality + effort estimate